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Electrical Marketing’s Leading Indicators - Jan. 22, 2016

Jan. 22, 2016
There were a few occasions where demand for design services decreased on a month-to-month basis in 2015, but the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) concluded the year in positive terrain and was positive in eight of the twelve months of the year.

Total building permits up 12% in 2015. The U.S. Census Bureau said privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,232,000, 3.9% below the revised November rate of 1,282,000, but 14.4% above the December 2014 estimate of 1,077,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 740,000, 1.8% above the revised November figure of 727,000. An estimated 1,178,400 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2015, 12% above the 2014 figure of 1,052,100.

PMI stays in negative territory in December. The December PMI published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, Tempe, Ariz., registered 48.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the November reading of 48.6 percent.  A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

ABI ends 2015 on a high note. There were a few occasions where demand for design services decreased on a month-to-month basis in 2015, but the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) concluded the year in positive terrain and was positive in eight of the twelve months of the year.

As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI published monthly by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 50.9, up from the mark of 49.3 in the previous month. This score reflects a slight increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 60.2, up from a reading of 58.6 the previous month.

“As has been the case for the past several years, there continues to be a mix of business conditions that architecture firms are experiencing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “Overall, ABI scores for 2015 averaged just below the strong showing in 2014, which points to another healthy year for construction this year.”