December Future EBCI Index Improves

Jan. 16, 2009
NEMA’s Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI) for current North American conditions dropped for a third straight month in December, sliding by almost 10 points from a month earlier. At 8 points, the index fell to its lowest level since October 2001.

NEMA’s Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI) for current North American conditions dropped for a third straight month in December, sliding by almost 10 points from a month earlier. At 8 points, the index fell to its lowest level since October 2001. The index is a monthly survey of senior executives at electrical manufacturers published by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, Va. Any reading under the 50-point break-even mark signals declining market conditions.

In marked contrast, the EBCI for future North American conditions has trended in a positive direction over the past two months. The December reading showed a sharp gain of more than 16 points, lifting the index to a six-month high of 36 points, up from 19.6 points a month ago and 17.5 points in October.

While the index remains firmly in contractionary territory, this sequence of results suggests that survey respondents may be expecting a progressively less severe deterioration in business conditions as the rolling six-month future conditions horizon extends further into 2009. Current conditions indexes for the other three world regions included in the survey were mostly higher in December.

  • Latin America’s current conditions increased to 26.3 points from 22.5 points, a 3.8-point gain, while its future conditions gained an impressive 13.8 points to 28.9 points.
  • Europe saw a solid increase in current conditions to 20.6 points from 10.5 points, a 10.1-point gain. Future conditions rose from 22.2 points to 33.3 points, an 11.1-point gain.
  • The Asia-Pacific region saw a modest 5.6-point decline in current conditions, from 21.4 points to 15.8 points and a 0.9-point increase in future conditions from 33.3 points to 34.2 points.