As we wind up the first quarter, many vendors, reps and distributors are not yet seeing much of a downturn in sales, despite the ominous sounds from Wall Street or the Federal Reserve Board.

While DISC Corp., Orange, Conn., is projecting a down year for the electrical industry, in the aggregate the key economic indicators are not currently in the red, with the exception of the residential market, and this is not the most important influence on electrical industry sales. However, I believe that when we look back on 2008, we will fold it into the package of past recessions, along with the 2001-02 downturn and all the others in the post-war period. It takes a number of key events to occur for a weak economy to be officially designated as in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, an independent research organization based in Cambridge, Mass., typically has the last word on defining the timing and length of recessions. The rule of thumb is that a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. That’s not the official definition, but it’s a good place to start.

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Thank-you from the staff of Electrical Marketing.