Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators

Oct. 22, 2010
Building permits slip in September Building permits in September dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000, 5.6 percent below the revised

Building permits slip in September

Building permits in September dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 539,000, 5.6 percent below the revised August rate of 571,000 and 10.9 percent below the September 2009 estimate of 605,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 405,000, 0.5 percent above the revised August figure of 403,000.

Architects rejoice as ABI goes positive

For the first time since January 2008, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI), published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., showed growth in design activity in September, increasing for the fourth straight month.

As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. AIA reported the September ABI score was 50.4, up from a reading of 48.2 the previous month. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was also up sharply, moving from 54.6 to 62.3 — the highest mark since July 2007.

“This is certainly encouraging news, but we will need to see consistent improvement over the next few months in order to feel comfortable about the state of the design and construction industry,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “Still, the strong upturn in design activity in the commercial and industrial sector certainly suggests that this upturn can possibly be sustained.”

PMI tumbles

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) published by the Institute for Supply Management, Tempe, Ariz., slipped 1.9 points in September to 54.4 points but still remains in growth territory. Said Norbert Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, “While the headline number shows relative strength this month as the PMI reading of 54.4 percent is still quite positive, the overall picture is less encouraging. The growth of new orders continued to slow, as the index is down significantly from its cyclical high of 65.9 percent (January 2010).”

The Marketplace : Key Figures

Month Latest month Previous month Month-over-month % change Year ago Year-over-year % change 2009 annual CONSTRUCTION New Construction Put in Place
(Billions of dollars, SAAR)2 Total AUG 811.83 808.59 0.4 901.79 -10 907.63 Offices AUG 21.97 22 -0.1 36.46 -39.7 38.05 Industrial AUG 36.97 37.06 -0.2 57.71 -35.9 58.15 Housing Starts SEP 610 608 0.3 586 4.1 554 Single-unit SEP 452 433 4.4 507 -10.8 442 Mobile Homes AUG 51 52 -1.9 48 6.3 50 Employment, Construction SEP 5,841 5,931 -1.5 6,067 -3.7 6,037 Employment, electrical AUG 773 768.2 0.6 797.9 -3.1 795.8 Hourly Wage AUG 25.38 25.35 0.1 24.79 2.4 24.76 PRODUCTION Industrial Production Index (1967=100)5 SEP 93.2 93.4 -0.2 88.4 5.4 87.7 Construction Supplies Production Index5 SEP 79.1 79.7 -0.8 75.1 5.2 75.4 Employment, in Electrical Equipment & Supplies Mfg.
Production Workers (Thousands)4 AUG 144.5 144.2 0.2 145 -0.3 146.7 Weekly Hours AUG 42 41.7 0.7 39.4 6.6 39.6 Hourly Wage AUG 16.69 16.73 -0.2 16.55 0.8 16.11 Electrical Power Output Index (1967=100)5 SEP 99.2 101.2 -2 95.6 3.8 96.8 Machine Tool Orders* (Millions of dollars)2 AUG 234.41 249.25 -6 115.32 103.3 Industrial Capacity Utilization (Percent, SA) 1 SEP 72.42 72.49 -0.1 68.07 4.3 67.04 TRADE Elec. Mfr. Shipments (Millions of dollars)2 AUG 3,252 3,189 2 2,750 18.3 Elec. Mfr. Inventories (Millions of dollars)2 AUG 4,700 4,730 -0.6 4,205 11.8 4,475 Elec. Mfr. I/S Ratio AUG 1.445 1.483 -2.6 1.529 -5.5 1.596 Elec. Mfr. New Orders
(Millions of dollars)2 AUG 3,441 3,257 5.6 2,659 29.4 Elec. Mfr. Unfilled Orders
(Millions of dollars)2 AUG 15,636 15,447 1.2 14,001 11.7 14,253 Exports, Electrical Machinery
(f.a.s. millions of dollars)2 AUG 6,551 6,414 2.1 5,452 20.2 63,949 U.S. Dollar vs. Other Major Currencies (1973=100)5 SEP 101.6 102.6 -1 102.5 -0.9 105.6 PRICES & INTEREST RATES Industrial Commodites Wholesale Price Index
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1967=100) SEP 187 187 0 176.9 5.7 174.9 Electrical Price Index
(Electrical Marketing, 1997=100) SEP 138.8 138.7 0 135 2.8 133.1 Construction Materials Wholesale Price Index
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982=100) SEP 205.7 206 -0.1 202 1.8 202.9 Copper Price (Metals Week, cents per pound) OCT 379.95 355.8 6.8 291.86 30.2 239.28 Prime Rate5 SEP 3.3 3.3 0 3.3 0 3.3 Federal Funds Rate5 SEP 0.2 0.2 0 0.2 0 0.2 Mortgage Rate7 SEP 4.4 4.4 -0.1 5.1 -0.7 5

*Several series related to employment are now being reported on a NAICS basis. Because of this change, some numbers are not directly comparable to previously reported data, but are consistent in year-over-year comparisons and comparisons shown in the table.

Sources: 1McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge; 2Dept. of Commerce; 3Manufactured Housing Institute; 4Dept. of Labor; 5Federal Reserve Board; 6The Association for Manufacturing Technology; 7Federal Home Loan Bank Board.
Note: Some figures shown — prime rate, for example — are averaged for month. NYA — not yet available
SA-seasonally adjusted. SAAR-seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source for chart: Global Insight.
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