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    1. Mag

    Electrical Marketing's Leading Indicators

    May 21, 2010
    AIA's Billing Index remains on growth track in April For the third straight month, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published by the American Institute

    AIA's Billing Index remains on growth track in April

    For the third straight month, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., has gone up. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine-to-twelve-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The AIA reported the April ABI rating was 48.4 points, up from a reading of 46.1 points the previous month. Although this score reflects a continued decline in demand for design services (any score above 50 points indicates an increase in billings), it's the highest score since January 2008, when revenue at architecture firms headed into recession. The new projects inquiry index was 59.6 points.

    “It appears that the design and construction industry may be nearing an actual recovery phase,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “The economic landscape is improving, although not across the board, but doing so at a gradual pace. It's quite possible that we will finally see positive business conditions in the foreseeable future.”

    PMI Index top 60 points

    A 0.8-point gain in April pushed the Purchasing Managers Index to a very bullish 60.4 point reading in April. Any reading above 50 points indicated a growth environment. Said Norbert Ore, chair of the Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, “The manufacturing sector grew for the ninth consecutive month during April. The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is the fastest since June 2004 when the index hit 60.5 percent. Manufacturers continue to see extraordinary strength in new orders. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs are positive for continued growth.”

    Leading Indicators drop slightly in April

    The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in April, following a 1.3 percent gain in March, and a 0.4 percent rise in February.

    Said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board, “These latest results suggest a recovery that will continue through the summer, although it could lose a little steam. Meanwhile, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, has been improving since mid-2009.”

    The Marketplace : Key Figures

    MonthLatest monthPrevious monthMonth-over-month % changeYear agoYear-over-year % change2008 annualCONSTRUCTION New Construction Put in Place (Billions of dollars, SAAR)2 Total MAR 847.32 845.53 0.2 966.7 -12.3 937.58 Offices MAR 27.86 28.66 -2.8 48.08 -42.1 40.68 Industrial MAR 58.7 55.8 5.2 81.96 -28.4 74.61 Housing Starts (Thousands of units, SAAR) APR 672 635 5.8 477 40.9 554 Single-unit APR 593 538 10.2 386 53.6 442 Mobile Homes3 MAR 53 52 1.9 51 3.9 50 Employment, construction (Thousands) APR 5,488 5,279 4 6,014 -8.7 6,037 Employment, electrical MAR 725.1 727.1 -0.3 798.8 -9.2 795.8 Hourly Wage ($) MAR 25.27 24.82 1.8 24.67 2.4 24.76 PRODUCTION Industrial Production Index (1967=100)5 APR 102.3 101.5 0.8 97.2 5.2 98.2 Construction Supplies Production Index5 APR 84.3 82.1 2.8 82 2.9 82.3 Employment, in Electrical Equipment & Supplies Mfg.
    Production Workers (Thousands)4 MAR 140.7 140.2 0.4 149.5 -5.9 146.7 Weekly Hours MAR 41.5 41.1 1 39.3 5.6 39.6 Hourly Wage ($) MAR 16.32 16.44 -0.7 15.7 3.9 16.11 Electrical Power Output Index (1967=100)5 APR 105.8 107.1 -1.2 108.5 -2.5 107.5 Machine Tool Orders* (Millions of dollars)2 MAR 234.24 154.98 51.1 153.23 52.9 Industrial Capacity Utilization (Percent, SA) 1 APR 71.25 70.43 0.8 65.9 5.3 66.94 TRADE Elec. Mfr. Shipments (Millions of dollars)2 MAR 2,889 2,786 3.7 2,770 4.3 Elec. Mfr. Inventories (Millions of dollars)2 MAR 4,251 4,208 1 4,854 -12.4 4,475 Elec. Mfr. I/S Ratio MAR 1.471 1.51 -2.6 1.752 -16 1.596 Elec. Mfr. New Orders
    (Millions of dollars)2 MAR 3,260 2,906 12.2 2,379 37 Elec. Mfr. Unfilled Orders
    (Millions of dollars)2 MAR 14,745 14,374 2.6 14,439 2.1 14,253 Exports, Electrical Machinery
    (f.a.s. millions of dollars)2 MAR 6,753 5,714 18.2 5,095 32.5 63,949 U.S. Dollar vs. Other Major Currencies (1973=100)5 APR 102.4 102.9 -0.5 109.7 -6.6 105.9 PRICES & INTEREST RATES Industrial Commodites Wholesale Price Index
    (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1967=100) APR 186.9 185.7 0.6 170.3 9.7 174.9 Electrical Price Index
    (Electrical Marketing, 1997=100) APR 139.3 138.4 0.6 131.7 5.7 133.1 Construction Materials Wholesale Price Index
    (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982=100) APR 206 204.8 0.6 203.2 1.4 202.9 Copper Price (Metals Week, cents per pound) MAY 319.15 355.92 -10.3 214.61 48.7 239.28 Prime Rate5 APR 3.3 3.3 0 3.3 0 3.3 Federal Funds Rate5 APR 0.2 0.2 0 0.2 0 0.2 Mortgage Rate7 APR 5.1 5 0.1 4.8 0.3 5

    *Several series related to employment are now being reported on a NAICS basis. Because of this change, some numbers are not directly comparable to previously reported data, but are consistent in year-over-year comparisons and comparisons shown in the table.

    Sources: 1McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge; 2Dept. of Commerce; 3Manufactured Housing Institute; 4Dept. of Labor; 5Federal Reserve Board; 6The Association for Manufacturing Technology; 7Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Note: Some figures shown — prime rate, for example — are averaged for month. NYA — not yet available

    SA-seasonally adjusted. SAAR-seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source for chart: Global Insight.

    For further information about construction starts, please contact Dodge Analytics at 1-800-591-4462