We're on a road we have never traveled — an economic “great recession” that plunged the electrical industry into its worst downturn in history. The overall economy has now begun its recovery, with the official recession declared over as of June 2009. Recovery for the overall economy, measured by GDP, means we have “turned the corner” and we are on a plus-growth path. For the electrical industry, however, our last actual data point, the first quarter 2010, showed distributor sales at -3% from the year-ago period.

While the overall economy has officially recovered, the electrical industry is still in a downturn, or was as of the first quarter of this year. The conclusion is that we lag the overall economy in recovery by at least nine months. Our calculations show that the electrical industry at the national level will not recover until the second quarter of 2010, and we do not yet have a final second-quarter number for the electrical industry. DISC's second-quarter data is still a forecast. From June 2009 through March 2010 is just about nine months.

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Thank-you from the staff of Electrical Marketing.