In late April, the U.S. Commerce Department issued its advance estimates for the first-quarter 2002 growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States). GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.8 percent in the first quarter of 2002, according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 1.7 percent. The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the first quarter were: private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures, government spending, residential fixed investment and exports. The contributions of these components were partly offset by a decrease in nonresidential structures. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration of real GDP growth in the first quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment, in exports, and in residential fixed investment and smaller decreases in nonresidential structures and in equipment and software that were partly offset by a deceleration in PCE.

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators, designed to predict economic patterns over the next few months, increased by 0.1 percent in March. The leading index now stands at 112.3. The coincident index increased by 0.2 percent to 116.0 (1996=100). The lagging index, an indication of where the economy has already been, fell 0.4 percent in March. The leading index has been posting strong gains, growing by 2.9 percent from September 2001 to March 2002, and by 2.2 percent for each of the six-month periods ending January and February 2002. The gains would have been more robust had it not been for the weakness in building permits and claims for unemployment insurance.

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