The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index increased 0.5 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in November. The leading index increased again in November, following a large gain in October. With November’s increase, the six-month growth rate of the leading index picked up to about a 3.4 percent annual rate, up from an average of about 1.9 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2005, and strength among the leading indicators has been widespread since August. The largest contributor to November’s gain was initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), which returned to levels seen before the hurricanes hit the gulf region.
The leading index has been fluctuating around a relatively flat trend since mid-2004, following a strong upward trend from mid-2003 to mid-2004. Despite the slowing growth of the leading index, the strenghts and weaknesses were well balanced through mid-2005, and strength among the leading indicators has become somewhat more widespread in recent months. It is too early to tell whether the slowdown in the leading index has ended, and the recent behavior of the leading index is still consistent with the economy continuing to expand moderately in the near term.
The leading index now stands at 138.8 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 1 percent in October and decreased 0.7 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 1.7 percent, with eight out of 10 components advancing.