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Manufacturers and Distributors Brace for Another Wild Ride in Copper in 2009

By: John Gross, The Copper Journal

Just six months ago, on July 2, 2008, the price of copper on Comex closed at a record high $4.08 per pound. Today, copper is trading in the $1.45 range, down $2.63, or 64 percent from that historic peak, with all indications suggesting it has further to fall. Many questions arise from this reversal of fortune. They include how and why the market rose the way it did, and, just as important, what caused the precipitous fall.

Broadly speaking, one can say the roots of this bull market have their origin in 2002. First, the bursting of the dot-com bubble pushed equity prices sharply lower. Then the horrific 9/11 attacks upon the United States sent the global economy into a downward spiral and the copper market into a near depression. That year saw global copper consumption decline by almost 200,000 metric tonnes, or 1.3 percent, the first such loss to occur in 10 years.

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