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Builder Confidence Hits 10-Year High, Says National Association of Home Builders

Sept. 18, 2015
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased one point in September to 62, the highest level in 10 years. Two of the three components increased:

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased one point in September to 62, the highest level in 10 years. Two of the three components increased: The present sales indicator rose one point to 67, and the traffic indicator increased two points to 47. The measure of future sales declined two points to 68, albeit from a two-month sustained level of 70 not seen since late 2005. Regional three-month moving averages were up one point in the Midwest (to 59), the South and West (to 64). The Northeast fell one point to 46 but from a yearly high of 47.

Along with his analysis of this month’s NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index,  published monthly by the National Association of Home Builders, Washington, D.C., David Crowe the association’s chief economist, said in this month’s Eye on the Economy Blog that, “Builders continue to express confidence that the slow single-family housing recovery will continue, but report issues about the ability to access lots. Additionally, concerns about hiring qualified construction workers and regulatory burdens also present potential cost challenges.”

Crowe also said in his blog, “August offered good news with respect to building material prices. According to BLS data from the Producer Price Index, softwood lumber prices partially reversed the 2.4% increase in July, declining 2.2% in August. Prices have hovered in this range since early 2014. Similarly, OSB price dropped 0.8% after a 1.0% increase in July.

“Overall, soft overseas demand has kept domestic supply at home placing downward pressure on prices. Gypsum prices dropped another 0.9% in August, bringing the decline from a February peak to 6.5%. Gypsum prices are now slightly below the housing boom peak, although history suggests price increases could come as the new year approaches.”