Electrical Marketing’s Leading Economic Indicators

March 22, 2013
Building permits, the purchasing managers' report and the Conference Board's indicators are all looking more robust.
Building permits see nice jump in February YTY. The Department of Commerce reported that  privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000, 4.6% above the revised January rate of 904,000 and 33.8% above the Feb. 2012 estimate of 707,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 600,000, 2.7% above the revised January figure of 584,000. Permits for buildings with five units or more hit 316,000 in February.
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said, “Despite some bumps in the road, overall housing production continues on the solid upward trend that we saw throughout 2012. Moreover, further gains in permit issuance are a positive sign that home construction will continue to drive economic and job growth in the coming months, albeit at a slower pace than would be possible without certain limiting factors.”
PMI jumps 1.1 point in February. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) published by the Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management took another big step into positive territory in February with a 1.1-point increase to 54.2%, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the third consecutive month. This month’s reading reflects the highest reading of the PMI, since June 2011, when the index registered 55.8%. Any score over 50 points indicates  that PMI survey respondents believe the industrial sector will grow in the near future.
Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators improve in January. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. rose 0.2 percent in January to 94.1, following a 0.5 percent increase in December and no change in November. Says Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, “The indicators point to an underlying economy that remains relatively sound but sluggish. Credit use has picked up, driven in part by relatively strong demand for auto loans. The biggest positive factor is housing, now at twice the level reached during its recessionary lows, and will likely continue to improve through the spring, delivering some growth momentum to the labor market and the overall economy. The biggest risk is the adverse impact of cuts in federal spending.”