The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in June. The leading index fell slightly in June, the first decline since March 2003.
June’s weakness was not widespread, and some of the decline was from the average manufacturing workweek (which was most likely the result of many businesses being closed for President Reagan’s funeral). While the leading index is still on an upward trend, its growth rate has slowed in recent months--into the 2.5 to 3.5 percent range (annual rate). The current behavior of the leading index is consistent with real GDP increasing at a 4 to 5 percent annual rate in the near term.
The leading index now stands at 116.2 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in May and increased 0.1 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 1.5 percent, with eight out of 10 components advancing.