September’s Dodge Momentum Index Drops -4% Due to Moderation in Data Center Action

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), published by Dodge Construction Network decreased -4.2% in September to 208.6 (2000=100) from the revised August reading of 217.7 points. Over the month, commercial planning contracted -7.8% and institutional planning improved +5.2%.  
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
“Despite this month’s decline, the Dodge Momentum Index remains at very robust levels,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, in a press release. “A surge in data center activity drove much of the recent rapid growth in the DMI, so as planning for that sector moderated over the month, overall commercial planning fell back. By mid-2025, the Fed’s rate cuts should spur planning projects to reach groundbreaking more quickly, leading to stronger nonresidential activity as 2025 progresses.” 
Commercial planning generally receded. After gaining in recent months, warehouse, office and stores planning activity all slowed down. However, hotels have been gaining speed over the past five months, expanding steadily in September. Data centers continued to dominate large project activity, but the rate at which planning projects entered the queue continued to moderate from the above-average levels of growth in recent months.
On the institutional side, education, healthcare and recreational projects were the primary drivers of this past month’s expansion, with only religious planning posting a decline. This month, the DMI was +21% higher than in Sept. 2023. The commercial segment was up +31% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was up +4% over the same period.  
 Twenty-eight projects were valued at $100 million or more entered planning in September. The largest commercial projects included the $390-million Project Nova Data Center in Eagan, MN, and Phase 1 and 2 of the SNA Data Center in Cedar Rapids, IA,  valued at $375 million per phase. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $300-million Kairos Power R&D lab facility in Albuquerque, NM; and the $215-million phase 2 of the Kentucky Exposition Center redevelopment in Louisville, KY.