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Electrical Marketing’s Leading Economic Indicators

Sept. 18, 2015
Purchasing Managers Index and Conference Board's indicators dip slightly. The rig count, on the other hand, actually rises!

August Purchasing Managers Index slides 1.6 points. The August Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, Tempe, Ariz., registered 51.1 percent, a decrease of 1.6 points from the July reading of 52.7%. The New Orders Index registered 51.7 percent, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from the reading of 56.5 percent in July.

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The international oil rig count tallied by Baker Hughes Inc., for August 2015 was 1,137, up 19 from the 1,118 counted in July 2015, and down 202 from the 1,339 counted in August 2014. The international offshore rig count for August 2015 was 270, up six from the 264 counted in July 2015, and down 45 from the 315 counted in August 2014. The Asia Pacific (+8 rigs to 220 rigs) showed the most growth, followed by Latin America (+6 rigs), Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

The average U.S. rig count for August 2015 was 883, up 17 from the 866 counted in July 2015, and down 1,021 from the 1,904 counted in August 2014. The average Canadian rig count for August 2015 was 206, up 23 from the 183 counted in July 2015, and down 193 from the 399 counted in August 2014.

Texas showed the biggest year-over-year (YOY) decline, with 366 rigs now operating, a 539 rig decline from its 905 rigs in Aug. 2014. The biggest YOY declines were in the Permian Basin (-316 rigs) and Eagle Ford Basin (-113 rigs).  North Dakota’s Williston Basin is also down more than 100 rigs with a drop of 123 rigs from Aug. 2014.

Leading Indicators see slight decline in July. The Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2% in July to 123.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6% increase in June, and a 0.6% increase in May. “The U.S. LEI fell slightly in July, after four months of strong gains,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research. “Despite a sharp drop in housing permits, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to moderate economic growth through the remainder of the year. Current conditions have been rising moderately but steadily.”