Electrical Marketing’s Leading Economic Indicators

Building permits down marginally in January but are tracking 13.5% year-over year. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.202,000 0.2% below the revised December rate of 1,204,000, but 13.5% above the January 2015 estimate of 1,059,000. Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 720,000, 1.6% below the revised December figure of 732,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 442,000 in January.

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index sags in January. Following a generally positive performance in 2015, the Architecture Billings Index began 2016 by modestly dipping back into negative terrain. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.

The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the January ABI score was 49.6, down slightly from the mark of 51.3 in the previous month. This score reflects a minor decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).

“The fundamentals are mostly sound in the nonresidential design and construction market,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker. “January was a rocky month throughout the economy, with falling oil prices, international economic concerns, and with steep declines in stock market valuations in the U.S. and elsewhere. Some of the fallout of this uncertainty may have affected progress on design projects.”

PMI shows slight increase in January but remains in negative territory. The January PMI registered 48.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 48% percent. According to the latest monthly Manufacturing Report on Business published by the Institute for Supply Management, Tempe, Ariz., the nation’s supply chain executives said economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the fourth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 80th consecutive month.