EM’s Leading Economic Indicators - Oct. 25, 2025 Update

Building permits remain sluggish in September

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000, -2.9%  below the revised August rate of 1,470,000 and -5.7% below the Sept. 2023 rate of 1,515,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 970,000, +0.3% above the revised August figure of 967,000.

AIA architects report another month of soft activity

August marked the nineteenth consecutive month of declining billings for architecture firms, according to the latest data from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) in its AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI). The pace of decline during August accelerated, posting an ABI score of 45.7 points (well under the 50-point growth mark), a decrease from 48.2 points in July.
“Unfortunately, even the impending interest rate cuts didn’t move the needle on project inquiries or new design contracts at architecture firms,” said Kermit Baker, PhD, AIA Chief Economist. “Hopefully, once the trajectory of further cuts gets clarified, delayed projects will restart, and new projects will gather momentum.”

Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Indicators remain bearish

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by -0.5% in September 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), following a -0.3% decline in August. Over the six-month period between March and Sept. 2024, the LEI fell by -2.6%, more than its -2.2% decline over the previous six-month period (Sept. 2023 to March 2024).
“Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, in the press release. “Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.”