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Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators - May 17, 2024 Update

May 16, 2024
Buildiing permits and the AIA's Architecture Billings Index both came in low for the month of April.

April building permits slide

Building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000, -3% below the revised March rate of 1,485,000 and -2% below the April 2023 rate of 1,470,000. The U.S. Census Bureau said single‐family authorizations in April were at a rate of 976,000, -0.8% below the revised March figure of 984,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 408,000 in April.

 

Architects report soft conditions in AIA’ billings index survey

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reported a score of 43.6 points for the March.
Any reading below 50 points indicates softening business conditions. Published monthly by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), the ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
“Elevated construction costs coupled with prolonged high interest rates continue to discourage new project activity,” said Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist, in the press release. “However, institutional design work seems to have stabilized, providing a solid base for the profession as it awaits a more positive economic environment for construction.”

 

Dodge Momentum Index sees solid increase in April

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased +6.1% in April to 173.9 (2000=100) from the revised March reading of 164.0. The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
“The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) saw positive progress in April, alongside a deluge of data center projects that entered the planning stage,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, in the press release. “Outsized demand to build cloud and AI infrastructure is supporting above-average activity. Most other categories, however, faced slower growth over the month. Across these industries, it’s likely that owners and developers are grappling with uncertainty around interest rates and lending standards, thus delaying their decisions to push projects into the planning queue.”

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