Leading Economic Index Increases

The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index remained unchanged in December. The leading index increased again in December and November’s increase was revised up slightly. These consecutive increases follow five consecutive declines, and the weakness in the leading indicators has become somewhat less widespread. It is now likely that the five-month decline in the leading index was only a pause in the rising trend that has been underway since March 2003.

Four of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased in December. The positive contributors to December’s increase were index of consumer expectations, stock prices, real money supply, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance.

The leading index now stands at 115.4 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in November and decreased 0.3 percent in October. During the six-month span through December, the leading index decreased 0.9 percent, with six out of 10 components advancing.