Leading Economic Index Rises In June

The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index increased 0.9 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in June. Based on the benchmarked figures, the leading index increased sharply in June following no change in May. The revised leading index has increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate over the last six months, but this is down from a peak of about 10 percent at the end of 2003. The strengths and weaknesses among the components of the leading index have been roughly balanced in recent months.

Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors were index of consumer expectations, vendor performance, real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, interest rate spread, stock prices and building permits. The negative contributor was manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods.

The leading index now stands at 137.7 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index increased 0.6, with five out of 10 components advancing.