U.S. Leading Economic Index Remains Steady In February

The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index held steady. The coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index also held steady in February. The leading index was unchanged in February, but there were also upward revisions to previous months. As a result, the leading index is increasing at a 3 to 4 percent annual rate, and this growth continues to be widespread. The upturn in the leading index since March 2003 has been signaling stronger economic growth, and real GDP growth picked up to a 6.1 percent annual rate during the second half of 2003. While the growth rate of the leading index has slowed somewhat in recent months, it is still signaling relatively strong economic growth in the near term.

The leading index now stands at 115.1 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in January and increased 0.4 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the leading index increased 1.7 percent, with eight out of 10 components advancing.