Electrical Marketing’s Leading Indicators

Purchasing Managers Index remains on solid ground in September. Although the Purchasing Managers Index declined 0.3 points to 52.6 points last month, it’s still in positive territory and indicating growth for the economy. According to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Tempe, Ariz., the nation’s supply executives said economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the second consecutive month, and that the overall economy grew for the fifth consecutive month.

“The manufacturing sector grew for the second consecutive month in September,” said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM’s Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “While the rate of growth moderated slightly when compared to August, the recovery broadened as the number of industries reporting growth increased from 11 to 13. It appears the fundamentals for continuing recovery are still at work as inventories and sales are gaining balance.”

Builder confidence slips in October. With the expiration date for an important home buyer incentive approaching, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes slipped one point to 18 points in October, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“After trending upward from a historic low in January, the HMI’s positive momentum appears to have stalled,” said Joe Robson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “Our economists have repeatedly warned that the expiration of the $8,000 home buyer tax credit on Nov. 30, combined with the hurdles that builders face in obtaining construction financing and appropriate appraisals on new homes, could derail the fragile recovery in housing just as it is starting to take shape.”

Conference’s Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) looking mighty fine. “With the sixth consecutive increase, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has improved to its highest pace since 1983,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist. “Except for average work-week and building permits, all the leading indicators contributed positively to the index this month.”