EM Leading Indicators & Key Figures

Single-family building permits see +1.8% increase in July.

Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  1,336,000, +8.4% above the revised June rate of 1,232,000 and -1.5% above the July 2018 rate of 1,316,000. The U.S. Census Dept. said single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 838,000,
+1.8% percent above the revised June figure of 823,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five  units or more were at a rate of 453,000 in July, +24.8% above the June 2019 rate and +9.2% above the 415,000 permits issued in July 2018 rate.

PMI shows slight decline in July.

The July Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 51.2%, a decrease of -0.5 percentage point from the June reading of 51.7% percent.  Published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI is a survey of industrial purchasing managers that offers a read on future purchasing conditions. Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said July was the fourth straight month of slowing PMI expansion.

Architecture Billings Index stays flat in July.

Demand for design services in July remained essentially flat in comparison to the previous month, according to a new report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 50.1 in July showed a small increase in design services since June, which was a score of 49.1. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings. In July, the design contracts score dipped into negative territory for the first time in almost a year. Additionally, July billings softened in all regions except the West and at firms of all specializations except multifamily residential.
“The data is not the same as what we saw leading up to the last economic downturn but the continued slowing across the board will undoubtedly impact architecture firms and the broader construction industry in the coming months,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “A growing number of architecture firms are reporting that the ongoing volatility in the trade situation, the stock market, and interest rates are causing some of their clients to proceed more cautiously on current projects.”