Leading Economic Indicators - August 2018

Building permits increase in July. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000, +1.5% percent above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and +4.2% above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 869,000, +1.9% above the revised June figure of 853,000.

Purchasing Managers Index declines but remains in growth territory. The July PMI registered 58.1%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the June reading of 60.2%. Any reading over 50 points represents a growth environment.  Published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, the Purchasing Managers Index is based on the ISM’s monthly survey of industrial purchasing managers.

AIA forecasters see growth through 2019. Construction spending is projected to grow through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, DC. “At the halfway point of the year, this panel is even more optimistic,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “Their forecasts have been marked up to +4.7% growth in spending for this year and an additional +4% in 2019. If these projections materialize, by the end of next year the industry will have seen nine years of consecutive growth, and total spending on nonresidential buildings will be +5% greater — ignoring inflationary adjustments — than the last market peak of 2008.”

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is comprised of Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS Economics, Moody’s Economy.com, ConstructConnect, Associated Builders & Contractors, and FMI.

Rails remain busy. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) said U.S. rail traffic for the week ending August 11 continues to grow. For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 556,887 carloads and intermodal units, up +2.8% compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 32 weeks of 2018 was 17,185,288 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of +3.9% compared to last year.