Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators - November 22, 2024

Building permits remain soft in October

Building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000, -0.6% below the revised September rate of 1,425,000 and -7.7% below the Oct. 2023 rate of 1,534,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 968,000, +0.5% above the revised September figure of 963,000.

AIA architects see billings increase

After twenty months of declining billings, the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 50.3 points. This score indicates a balance between the number of firms experiencing a decrease in billings and those seeing an increase. Any reading over the 50-point mark indicates a positive business environment.

Although there was an increase in inquiries for new projects in October, AIA said clients are still cautious about moving forward. The value of new design contracts continued to decline for the seventh month in a row.

“Billings finally stabilized this month, and firms are feeling more optimistic about revenue projections for 2025,” said Kermit Baker, chief economist for the American Institute of Architects (AIA).  “Overall, 41% of responding firm leaders expect to see net revenue growth from 2024 to 2025, with 32% projecting growth in the +5% to +9% range.”

Construction employment increases in October

Between Oct. 2023 and Oct. 2024, 41 states added construction jobs — the largest 12-month gain so far this year.   Texas added the most construction employees (38,800 jobs or +4.7%); followed by Florida (27,700 jobs, 4.4%); Michigan (14,600 jobs, +7.7%); and Virginia (12,500 jobs, +5.8%).

New York lost the most construction jobs during the past 12 months (-9,200 jobs, -2.4%); followed by Oregon (-5,100 jobs, -4.3%); Maryland (-2,500 jobs, -1.6%); California (-1,700 jobs, -0.2%); and Minnesota (-1,600 jobs, -1.2%). “Year-over-year job growth has become more widespread in construction despite slowing down in other sectors,” said Ken Simonson, the association’s chief economist, in the press release. “Still more states would have posted gains in construction employment if there were enough qualified workers available to hire.”