Electrical Marketing's Leading Indicators - Feb. 28, 2025 Update

Building permits see mild decline in January

Building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,483,000, +.0.1% above the revised December rate of 1,482,000, and -1.7% below the Jan. 2024 rate of 1,508,000. The U.S. Census Dept. data for single-family authorizations in January was at a rate of 996,000, virtually unchanged from the revised December figure of 996,000. 

Business conditions for AIA architects still soft in January

Architecture firms reported another decline in billings in January as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) was 45.6 points. Any score below 50 points in the American Institute of Architects (AIA) monthly survey indicates decreasing business conditions.
AIA said inquiries for new projects continued to rise at a steady, slow pace, but the value of newly signed design contracts dropped for the eleventh month in a row, as clients stayed cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
“Stubborn inflation, persistently high interest rates, and labor concerns continue to weigh on the willingness of owners and developers to move ahead with construction projects,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker in the press release. “Architecture firms have been moving to right-size their operations in response to softer market conditions. There was a net loss of 1,400 positions at architecture firms nationally in 2024, and firm employment has declined by a total of 4,100 positions since the post-pandemic peak in June 2023.”

Conference Board's leading indicators slip in January

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States fell by -0.3% in January 2025 to 101.5 (2016=100), after a  -0.1% increase in Dec. 2024 Overall, the LEI recorded a -0.9% decline in the six-month period ending January 2025, much less than its -1.7% decline over the previous six months.
“The U.S. LEI declined in January, reversing most of the gains from the previous two months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, for The Conference Board, in the press release. “Consumers’ assessments of future business conditions turned more pessimistic in January, which, alongside fewer weekly hours worked in manufacturing, drove the monthly decline.”