Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators: March 28, 2025 Update

Building permits see seasonal increase over January but down -6.8% YOY.

February building permits dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,456,000, -1.2% below the revised January rate of 1,473,000 and -6.8% below the Feb. 2024 rate of 1,563,000. The Census Dept.  pegged February single-family permits at a rate of 992,000, - 0.2% below the revised Jan. 2025 figure of 994,000. 

AIA architects battling tough business conditions

The slowdown in billings at architects’ offices continues according to an American Institute of Architects (AIA) survey. The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) continues to weaken, posting a score of 45.5 points for February. This indicates a majority of firms are still experiencing declining firm billings.  Any reading below 50 points indicates softening business conditions
For the first time since the peak of the pandemic in 2020, AIA said February saw a drop in inquiries for new projects, typically a steady indicator of potential opportunities even during economic slowdowns.
“Conditions in the broader economy were generally positive in February, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by only a modest amount, long-term interest rates easing from January levels, and healthy job growth,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, in the press release. “However, uncertainty surrounding the impact of recently announced tariffs may lead to a rise in building material prices in the coming months while immigration policy may put even more pressure on an already undersupplied construction labor market.” 

Conference Board's leading indicators still declining

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.3% in Feb. 2025 to 101.1 (2016=100), after a -0.2% decline (revised from –0.3%) in January. Overall, the LEI fell by -1% in the six-month period ending February 2025, less than half of its rate of decline of –2.1% over the previous six months (Feb. 2024–Aug. 2024).
“The U.S. LEI fell again in February and continues to point to headwinds ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ expectations of future business conditions turned more pessimistic.”