Dodge Momentum Index Loses Ground in June

The Dodge Momentum Index dropped -6.6% in June to 121.5 (2000=100) from the revised May reading of 130.1. The Momentum Index, published monthly by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The institutional component of the Momentum Index fell -11.7% while the commercial component declined by -3.5%.

The Dodge Momentum Index has shifted noticeably lower as the fallout from recession continues to hold its grip on the construction sector. The overall Momentum Index fell -13% in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, with the commercial component -14% lower and the institutional component down -11%. While the recession has ended and recovery is underway, the return from one of the steepest downturns in U.S. history will be slow and fraught with risk. This holds true for the construction sector as well. While projects continue to enter planning, the slower pace suggests that recovery in the construction sector will be modest in coming months.

In June, seven projects each with a value of $100 million or more entered planning. The leading commercial projects were a $200-million warehouse in Windsor, CT, and a $200-million office building in Somerville, MA. The only institutional project over $100 million was a $115-million emergency room addition in Johnson City, NY.