DISC Flash Update Points to Negative Growth in 2016

DISC’s most recent Flash Update Forecast says 2016 sales forecast are dipping further into negative territory.“DISC’s March monthly outlook forecasts 2016 sales to decrease 1.5% from a year ago, or another 0.2 of a point from the February forecast,” says Herm Isenstein, DISC’s president.

“It’s hard to imagine that total 2016 industry sales will wind up in positive growth territory. The March analysis drops the 2016 distributor-served contractor market another 0.3% from the February forecast to negative 0.7%. February and March forecasts of the distributor-served industrial market show that the needle hasn’t moved much, as both monthly forecasts indicate sales this year to be off nearly 3% with about an 8.5% growth next year. But moving from minus 3% this year to 8.5% next year is a strong turnaround — better than an 11-point swing.

“The take-off year in this cycle will be 2017. We do not see anything resembling a turnaround this year, although we will continue to track 2016 performance every month. Our primary focus on a monthly basis will be 2017, especially watching prices and the economic factors impacting the distributor served industrial market.

“DISC is currently looking for about 8% total sales growth but we are tracking this every month and will zero in as we approach third and fourth quarters of this year.”

For more on DISC’s monthly Flash Update, contact Isenstein at [email protected] or (203) 799-3673.