NEMA’s EBCI for Current Conditions Stumbles Again in January

In 2022, the current conditions component showed expansionary signals only twice, last breaking into growth territory in April. The December reading of 50 points, which signaled unchanged conditions from the previous month, teased the possibility of an expansionary environment ahead, but January’s score slid back to 46.4 points, indicating a modest slowdown.

The ElectroIndustry Business Conditions Index (EBCI) is a monthly survey of senior executives at electrical manufacturers published by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, VA. Any score over the 50-point level indicates a greater number of panelists see conditions improving than see them deteriorating.

Comments pointed to some degree of turbulence facing electrical manufacturers, with softness in residential and industrial markets but strong demand elsewhere and orders’ backlogs that remain stable.

Although still not back to signaling growth ahead, the future conditions component bounced up 10 points from the 36.4-point reading last month, reaching 46.4 points in January. A slight increase in the share of panel members who expected “worse” conditions in six months was nearly overshadowed by a surge to 43%t in those who indicated near-term expectations for “better” conditions, based on the January survey. According to some respondents’ comments, high interest rates and supply constraints will continue to bedevil manufacturers, but demand should remain strong, aided in part by investment in electrification projects.